Topic: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position  (Read 2336 times)

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Offline Parc Ferme

Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« on: 06/15/16 12:12PM »
Curious where everybody thinks JL will finish 2017 after his first year on the Ducati.

Post your prediction if you dare.

I'll go on record with somewhere between P6 and P8.
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Offline luciano136

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #1 on: 06/15/16 05:39PM »

5th.

Offline CBRunyan

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #2 on: 06/15/16 08:18PM »
5th. MM93, Pedrosa, Rossi, Vinales; although not necessarily in that order.

Offline thepretender

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #3 on: 06/15/16 09:10PM »
I think he will do better than expected, 3rd just a tad ahead of Vinales.
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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #4 on: 06/16/16 09:09AM »
I'm going to say P3 or P4. He's a great rider and considering who's on the factory Duc's at the moment, there isn't a one to one comparison IMO. Dovi, although a good rider, hasn't really been as consistent and Iannone is too over anxious and seems to torpedo out of the race before he can really do anything, some will blame the bike and I get that but not all blame can be placed there IMO. Lorenzo on the other hand is a "machine" look at his track times and records, if he can get the bike tailored to his riding style or adapt to the Duc's, I think he'll do really well.

As for the usual suspects, I do anticipate MM and VR to be up front and I also see Maverick getting a podium or two, maybe even the top step!

I should note that I am not a fan of Lorenzo but can fully appreciate and respect his talents.
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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #5 on: 06/16/16 10:39AM »
I think some of you forget a few years ago when the Honda's just dominated and the Yamaha's were clearly a second class bike... On pure talent alone, Lorenzo was able to take that bike and run with the Honda's at certain tracks. Now he's going to be on the most powerful bike on the track that (as OOTV said above) currently doesn't have the "best" riders on it. So the question is, can Ducati and Lorenzo work together to fine tune the handling of the bike? Lorenzo on a decent handling, most powerful bike on the track... 1st.

Offline FJ_Chris

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #6 on: 06/16/16 12:13PM »
1rst Suzuki Iannone
2nd Rossi
3rd Lorenzo
4th MM
5th Crutchlow (still pulling for the ball of fury after all these years but seriously... Vinales)

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #7 on: 06/16/16 12:49PM »
1rst Suzuki Iannone
2nd Rossi
3rd Lorenzo
4th MM
5th Crutchlow (still pulling for the ball of fury after all these years but seriously... Vinales)

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Dude! I was so hoping Crutchlow would be higher in the standings this year. He seemed to have caught a break in the last test though, appears to have found a better setup. Let's see if his luck changes...
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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #8 on: 06/16/16 12:53PM »
2nd -3rd. Still ahead of Rossi.
Chris, rossi ahead of marquez????  Tsk tsk.

Offline Marcos415

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #9 on: 06/16/16 01:32PM »
3rd place. Marquez 1st and Rossi 2nd.  He's mature enough to not take unnecessary risk and ride within his means. Remember these guys didn't grow up riding race bikes loaded with electronics they have more talent in one finger than we do in our entire bodies. He'll adjust to the bike's strengths and weaknesses.

Offline Parc Ferme

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #10 on: 06/17/16 08:30AM »
The Standings...

User         Prediction
Parc ferme      6-8
Luciano136   5
CBRunyan      5
Thepretender   3
OOTV      3-4
Scott         1
CR650_Chris   3
Sponger      2-3
Marcos415      3

#####

P.S., if you guys want a hint on how a rider will do in the upcoming season, gambling sites like 'Bet n Win' or 'Lose n Go' or 'Pay n Lose' or whatever are somehow usually spot on with rider predictions
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Offline 06R687

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #11 on: 06/17/16 01:33PM »
I'm thinking 4-5, I think Vinales is gonna do well on the Yamaha and then rossi and MM as usual

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #12 on: 06/17/16 01:46PM »
4th is my bet.

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #13 on: 06/17/16 06:42PM »
Wait, if we can have a range then put me down for 1-3 :7:
 :46:

Offline Parc Ferme

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #14 on: 06/18/16 09:41AM »
I was gonna start a different thread for this but I'm just gonna dump it in here.

So, I've had this gnawing feeling in the back of my mind ever since JL's first title and I never sat down and did the research because honestly I didn't really care.  However, curiosity has now gotten the better of me (mostly due to this thread) and so I did all of 2 minutes of research and I'm actually a little bit surprised (not really) at the results. Here goes...

It's my opinion that all of JL's titles have come when the other Aliens have struggled and JL has never captured a Title heads-up, on his own strength.

Let me explain before you light the torches.


First, who are the Aliens - VR, CS, JL, and DP. Since CS' retirement, MM has moved into that place. So, Aliens in 2016 are Rossi, Lorenzo, Pedrosa, and Marquez.  Note that DP has definitely been struggling, but I do not put that on the bike.  I think he is struggling with recovery from the experimental surgery or it hasn't worked as well as hoped.  Jury is out on DP, but my gut says he's struggling with recovery or at least the recovery is more difficult than he is saying publicly and MM's complaints about the bike are a convenient way to mask his health problems.

Anyway, back to JL.  So, as I said it's my opinion / assertion / whatever that JL's titles all have come when his rivals have struggled and he has not taken any titles on his own strength.  Let's take a look at the facts:

1. 2010 - JL's 1st Title. What else was going on in MotoGP at the time?  Rossi was on a roll having taking the 08 and 09 titles after losing 06 to NH and 07 to CS. Then, Mugello and VR snaps his leg about even with JL on points (I think Mugello was the 5th-ish race?). Kaboom, JL's main rival (and the title favorite) is out.  Rossi does come back to take 1 victory if I recall (at Sepang?).  But what about the other Aliens in 2010?  In 2010, Stoner was done with Ducati.  He was pissed ever since the "sickness debacle" in '09 and by '10, he had already decided to follow Suppo to Factory Honda.  2010 Stoner is mentally checked out and has no desire to push on a bike he hates for a team he hates.  DP gets his usual 2 wins (Someone can fact check this, I'm guessing).  So, JL's first Title comes in a year where VR snaps his leg and Stoner is fighting the bike and the team and has already announced he's leaving Bologna for Hamamatsu.

2. 2012 - JL's 2nd Title. Again, what else is happening in MotoGP?  Rossi is now wearing McDonalds leathers and hating life.  Burgess is butting heads with Professor X (aka "Wheels").  Bologna are completely wrapped around the axle and can't figure out how to build a race bike.  The Italian experiment is a failure.  Stoner?  Well, funny enough Stoner is pissed again even though he's the reigning champ from '11.  Now he hates MotoGP entirely (disgusted by the idea of top Open bike in Parc Ferme and Open class in general) and he is on his way out of the sport completely having announced his retirement in May of '12.  This means that once again CS is mentally checked out.  He's not pushing (he's mad at Honda now also) and somebody fact check this but i assume DP got his usual 2 wins.  Anyway, once again JL takes a title with VR and CS both struggling.

3. 2015 - JL's 3rd Title. I don't really know what to say on this one.  This whole thing was ugly.  I'll just say that JL's title came in 2015 after some super weird stuff going on in the final races of the season.  I don't want to rehash a bunch of garbage, especially because the whole VR v. MM stuff is irrelevant to my argument.  Remember I'm saying that JL has only taken Titles when his rivals have struggled... and in 2015, MM was struggling.  MM is the '13 and '14 champion meaning, obviously, that he has pulled back to back titles (something JL hasn't done) and I think if we are all honest, we can all say we expected MM and not VR (or JL) to take the '15 title.  So, it's 2015 and MM is struggling, he doesn't like the bike.  Where is VR?  Well, now that VR is happy on the bike again, he's actually competition for JL, not like when he was riding a Ducati.  This means that in '15 an Alien that wasn't struggling (until the end of year weirdness) was actually ahead of JL in the points going heads-up.  Meanwhile, the real title contender Marquez is fighting a bike he doesn't like.  JL's 3rd title comes when his rivals, especially MM, are struggling.

Additionally, I don't believe the hype regarding the Ducati GP bike and that it is somehow getting better or getting closer to the front.  Casey said the bike "didn't turn" and "washed the front without warning".  10 years later, the complaints are the same, the bike "doesn't turn" and it "washes the front without warning".  The Duc is not close to a race winner as you simply have to look at the gap to P1, it's not even in the same ZIP code as the RCV and M1.  These are the gaps to P1 in 2016 for Ducati +41.4, +36.5, +10.9, +26.2, +38.2, +4.7, +41.4.  After 7 races, Ducati has gone from 41.4 seconds behind P1 in Qatar to... 41.4 seconds behind P1 in Barcelona! lol

So, what is going to happen to Lorenzo?  Well, I think the same thing is going to happen to JL that has happened to every single rider that has ridden for Ducati. JL is going to end up fighting a weird bike that doesn't turn and washes the front without warning and when he asks for updates or improvements, nothing will happen or they will add more wings.  JL is not AD.  JL expects wins.  AD hopes for them (no disrespect).   So, fast forward into the 2017 season and the wins aren't coming, the press won't stop asking questions, JL is getting (unfairly) destroyed on his social media, now he's sinking down the leaderboard...  Yeah, this is a case of JL spiraling madness just waiting to happen.  As time goes on, he's going to become increasingly frustrated with the bike and the team and the factory, etc. and it's gonna start getting ugly.

Just my opinion.

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Offline Marcos415

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #15 on: 06/18/16 02:09PM »
I don't know man seems to me you're reaching extremely far for this one. I can see discrediting a one time champ like Nicky but not a 3 time motogp champ. Think of all the talented riders that have come and gone through the years and never collected a single championship and you're going to say this guy had all nine plantets align for him 3 times in the past 6 seasons? I would have to strongly disagree. How about we look at some of Rossi's early titles? What was his bike like compared to the rest of the grid? Who was his completion? How did his competition like Sete, Loris, and Max compare to guys like Pedro, Jorge, Marc, and Casey?

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #16 on: 06/18/16 09:47PM »
I'm shocked how both of you failed to mention the Great Ben Spies!!! :32: :32: :32: Ben Spies :32: :32: :32:
Whatever happened to all those guys on here that would get all mad when I would say, "BEN SPIES SUCKS!!!"? They had conspiracy theories how Yamaha was purposely sabotaging Spies' bike and that's why he was running... umm... 15th! By the way, JL was taking that same bike and winning Championships with it. If I'm not mistaken (I looked up this stat during a great OCMoto argument on the subject), I think JL worse finish that year was 2nd a few times.

So my point being, either JL is as good as everyone thinks, or Ben Spies SUCKED HARDER THAN I THOUGHT!!! Ben Spies sucked pretty hard. It's possible I underestimated his suckness... Damn, I think I did. Ok then, I need to correct my previous 1,000 post on how bad Ben Spies SUCKED and amend them all with the disclaimer:

"CORRECTION: IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION THAT BEN SPIES SUCKED HARDER AND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY STATED. PLEASE TAKE ANY AND ALL REFERENCES TO THE TOTAL SUCKNESS OF BEN SPIES AND ADD IN A FACTOR OF 3. SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. DEATH TO BEN SPIES."

I used a factor of 3, because all my previous post really did a good job of highlighting how and why BEN SPIES SUCKED!!! So a factor of 3 seemed appropriate. If I go with a factor of 5 it would have to start to look like this:

BEN SPIES SUCKED!!!
And that might seem to people that I was getting a little carried away.

Ben Spies Sucked

Offline Parc Ferme

Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #17 on: 06/19/16 09:02AM »
I'm shocked how both of you failed to mention the Great Ben Spies!!! :32: :32: :32: Ben Spies :32: :32: :32:
Whatever happened to all those guys on here that would get all mad when I would say, "BEN SPIES SUCKS!!!"? They had conspiracy theories how Yamaha was purposely sabotaging Spies' bike and that's why he was running... umm... 15th! By the way, JL was taking that same bike and winning Championships with it. If I'm not mistaken (I looked up this stat during a great OCMoto argument on the subject), I think JL worse finish that year was 2nd a few times.

So my point being, either JL is as good as everyone thinks, or Ben Spies SUCKED HARDER THAN I THOUGHT!!! Ben Spies sucked pretty hard. It's possible I underestimated his suckness... Damn, I think I did. Ok then, I need to correct my previous 1,000 post on how bad Ben Spies SUCKED and amend them all with the disclaimer:

"CORRECTION: IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION THAT BEN SPIES SUCKED HARDER AND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY STATED. PLEASE TAKE ANY AND ALL REFERENCES TO THE TOTAL SUCKNESS OF BEN SPIES AND ADD IN A FACTOR OF 3. SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. DEATH TO BEN SPIES."

I used a factor of 3, because all my previous post really did a good job of highlighting how and why BEN SPIES SUCKED!!! So a factor of 3 seemed appropriate. If I go with a factor of 5 it would have to start to look like this:

BEN SPIES SUCKED!!!
And that might seem to people that I was getting a little carried away.

Ben Spies Sucked

Ben Spies got screwed by Yamaha just like Melandri got screwed by Aprilia.

If you followed Spies career in the US, he always said he wasn't interested racing MotoGP.  After completely humiliating the WSBK grid in '09, Yamaha thot they might have someone respectable to take VR's seat so they convinced Spies to go to Factory Yamaha MotoGP (who wouldn't take VR's ride if offered?) when he just wanted to stay in WSBK.  Had he stayed, i believe he would have easliy surprassed all of Foggy's records and still be racing today.  Yamaha should have promoted some 250 kid to VRs seat and left Spies in WSBK to dominate and erode Ducati's stranglehold on the series. (fire lin jarvis)

Aprilia did the same thing to MM, he was quite happy in WSBK and so close to taking the title for Aprilia, then Aprilia decided to go "race" the Open class and forced MM back to MotoGP when he absolutely did not want to go race a P20 bike and vehemently resisted the move.  Halfway through the season, MM had enough and split.
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Offline RedRider4Life

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #18 on: 06/20/16 09:33AM »
I think he will do better than expected, 3rd just a tad ahead of Vinales.
Did you watch the last race? Its only time until Vinales hones his craft, acquires some patiences and becomes a force to be reckoned with. I would have to agree with most others that the highest he will finish would be 5th but I would hold my breath for that high either, Suzuki is showing that they can make a competitive bike, that ducati pulls on long straights but cannot hold corner speed currently with the likes of the Honda, Yamaha, or Suzuki. Watching that last race and how well that suzuki was handling had Vinales made the first pass on Dani stick he would have been right up there with Rossi and Marc mixing it up. This season is getting better as it progresses.

Offline sponger

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Re: Lorenzo 2017 Final Position
« Reply #19 on: 06/20/16 10:56AM »
No more wings on bikes starting next season. Lorenzo will ride the duc like Rossi couldnt, but stoner could. Lorenzo > Rossi

 

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